The day after the IMF said they didn’t agree with Krishnamurthy Subramanian’s prediction that India’s economy would grow by 8%, Subramanian, who used to work for the IMF, responded by saying that the IMF staff often get India’s growth figures wrong.
India’s economy has been growing by more than 7%, but all the estimates made by the IMF staff have been different.
For the financial year 2023-2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) initially said in November 2022 and January 2023 that they expected the economy to grow by 6.1%. Then, in April 2023, they changed their prediction to 5.9%. But by November 2023, they were more optimistic, forecasting growth of 6.3%. However, I believe the actual growth will be 8%.
This shows that the IMF’s predictions have big differences from the actual numbers. In November 2022 and January 2023, they were off by 1.9%. In April 2023, they were off by 2.1%. And in November 2023, they were off by 1.7%. This means their guesses about economic growth for the year are not very accurate.
Julie Kozack, who speaks for the IMF, said that Subramanian was speaking as India’s representative at the IMF when he shared his opinions. She was talking to reporters in Washington on Friday. She was answering a question about things Subramanian recently said. These things were not the same as what the IMF had previously said about the growth rate.
Subramanian, speaking at an event in New Delhi on March 28, said that if India continues its good policies and speeds up reforms, the economy could grow by 8% until 2047. He explained that if India keeps up the growth it has seen in the past 10 years and makes reforms happen faster, it could achieve this growth rate.
The IMF will soon release its updated World Economic Outlook. In January, they projected a medium-term growth of 6.5%, slightly higher than in October. They will provide the latest forecast in a few weeks.
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